Pericles said, “Just because you don’t take an interest in politics does not mean politics will not take an interest in you.”
Politics has a huge impact on business and our lives.
Having said that, Donald Trump is a certainty to win reelection in 2020 and businesses should plan on a Republican being in the White House for at least the next four years.
The question is not, should Donald Trump be reelected. That is a debate for pundits and partisans. The simple fact is, he will be reelected in 2020 and it will be a comfortable win.
To understand why Donald Trump will be reelected, there are certain things that must be understood.
First, when any President runs for reelection, it is a referendum on that Presidency. The incumbent has huge advantages. In fact, in the last one hundred years, only three Presidents have not been reelected to a second term, when they were seeking it. They were Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush.
Those campaigns have certain common denominators. First, the incumbent was handling a poor to really horrible economy and they ran an absolutely incompetent campaign.
The economy is doing well by any indicator. Employment is up, unemployment is down. Whoever his opponent ends up being, they won’t be able to claim the economy is bad. Or perhaps they can try, but no one will believe them.
Second, Donald Trump is probably the single best politician of the last one hundred years. His skills as a politician are amazing, especially when you consider that his run for the Presidency was his first serious campaign. President Trump understands how to control the narrative. He uses Twitter as a nuclear weapon that simply destroys those who oppose him. He sets the narrative and does not react to what the opposition does.
President Trump has huge advantages that his potential Democrat opponents do not have. In the first 24 hours after he announced his reelection campaign, he raised an incredible $25 million dollars. Compare that to former Vice President Joe Biden who raised $6.3 million and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who only raised $5.9 million.
The President has no primary opposition, while there are at least twenty major Democrat candidates and a few minor ones as well. The Democrat primary is going to be a blood bath like no one has seen. With that many candidates, the donor pool will be tapped out early and that kind of primary season is going to leave some donors with enough hard feelings that they will not open their wallets, if their candidate is not the nominee.
As a small business owner, I happen to like President Trump. I believe his policies in cutting taxes and more importantly, rolling back regulation and creating a more business friendly government environment, are the right policies. If any of the Democrats were to take the White House, their approach to business would be decidedly unfriendly and would choke off much of the growth we are now seeing in small business.
In 2020, President Trump is going to win reelection. That is not a partisan opinion, that is an opinion based on the facts and history. If you run a business, you should plan on four more years of Republican control of the White House.